土木計画学研究委員会 平成20年度第11回国際セミナーのご案内
東北大学東北アジア研究センター客員教授John Andrew BLACK 先生を
東京にお招きし，国際セミナーを開催致します．
皆様のご参加を心よりお待ちしております．留学生の参加も歓迎いたします．
＊講演は英語にて行います。
講師：John Andrew BLACK 先生（東北大学東北アジア研究センター客員教授）
題目：SPATIAL MODELLING AND COMMUTING: A SUMMARY OVER 40 YEARS
日時：２００９年３月１６日（月） １６：００〜１７：３０
場所：計画・交通研究会会議室 http://www.keikaku-kotsu.org/
司会：花岡伸也 (東京工業大学 准教授）
参加費：無料．なお，セミナー終了後，懇親会（会費制）を催す予定です．
問い合わせ：花岡伸也
東京工業大学 大学院理工学研究科 国際開発工学専攻
TEL/FAX 03-5734-3468 hanaoka@ide.titech.ac.jp
発表概要（Abstract）:
The global problems of urbanization at increasingly low densities in
car-dependent cities in well documented. A common policy response by
urban governments to achieve more sustainable cities is to increase
densities and achieve more compact cities, as for example in Japan. In
the policy cycle, where alternative urban forms with differing spatial
patterns of homes and workplaces and transport systems are evaluated,
the accessibility patterns to employment and the O-D flows of commuters
and resulting person (or vehicle) kilometres of travel are key
performance indicators of social and economic sustainability,
respectively. Spatial modelling, or accessibility modelling and trip
distribution modelling, are the technical underpinnings of these types
of policy analysis.
The presenter, and his academic colleagues and students, have researched
these two areas of spatial modelling since 1968 and this seminar will
summarize some of the key theoretical debates and practical results from
this research. The originality of these contributions in the field of
spatial modelling can be verified by referring to Erlander and Stewart’s
book on the gravity model and its extensions where the presenter’s name
appears in a table on significant advances made, bracketed together with
such luminaries as Sir Isaac Newton and Sir Alan Wilson (at a time when
the presenter was a doctoral candidate), and that the fact that the
translation of Urban Transport Planning into Chinese in 1987 was the
first time accessibility had been introduced to Chinese transport planners.
The seminar on theory and modelling covers: the equivalence of the
gravity model and mathematical programming; behavioral patterns of
commuting as represented by the inverse of Stouffer’s hypothesis of
intervening opportunities that we call preference functions; the optimal
assignment model of commuter traffic; and Hansen-type accessibility
models and equivalences. Remembering that the main theme of the seminar
is sustainable cities the empirical and practical applications of such
models in policy analysis are introduced with examples. The dual
variables in the optimal solution are in fact point to land-use
solutions for more optimal urban form or priorities for investment to
increase link capacities on a network. Gravity models and intervening
opportunity models are developed, calibrated, and analyzed for goodness
of fit before applying them forecast the travel implications of urban
release areas, and how transport infrastructure such as metros can
induce longer commutes. The preference functions and optimal assignment
problem can quantify trip length changes (and hence VKT) from
re-arranging homes and workplaces into different spatial configurations.
Finally, challenges of a more sustainable city such as Sydney, Australia
are introduced and recent research that is an integrated modelling
framework on a GIS platform with triple bottom line performance
indicators built around accessibility to homes and to workplaces,
embodied energy and greenhouse gas emissions.
